{"id":7627,"date":"2020-01-13T17:20:07","date_gmt":"2020-01-13T17:20:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/impedagogy.com\/wp\/?p=7627"},"modified":"2020-01-13T17:20:07","modified_gmt":"2020-01-13T17:20:07","slug":"backcasting-presencing-reverse-engineering-a-vision-of-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/impedagogy.com\/wp\/blog\/2020\/01\/13\/backcasting-presencing-reverse-engineering-a-vision-of-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Backcasting? Presencing? Reverse Engineering a Vision of the Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Backcasting Our Way to a Better Future: 8 Eye-Opening Scenarios<\/a>”<\/p>\n

I like this idea. I have seen it before in Otto Scharmer’s works, Theory U<\/a> and Leading from the Emerging Future<\/a>. He calls it “presencing” and has spent most of his adult life leading people to learn how to do “presencing”. I have a hard time getting some of Scharmer’s ideas, but this one by Thomas Frey, backcasting, seems like an entry trick into learning how to be present to emerging futures just as Scharmer advocates. In this case here is the template that Frey uses in his very handy article, “Backcasting Our Way to a Better Future: 8 Eye-Opening Scenarios<\/a>“.<\/p>\n

Frey assumes the following:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The internal steering wheel that our subconscious relies on to guide us through our daily lives is our inner vision of the future.<\/li>\n
  2. We all have an inner vision of the future. It is our subconscious guide, our steering wheel.<\/li>\n
  3. While we\u2019re not conscious of its role and how it works, our inner vision determines every action we will\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0take today. In other words, our inner vision determines our outer daily action.<\/li>\n
  4. Every potential decision (to buy, to do, to be) requires a yea or nay from the inner vision.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Frey sees his role as one of helping people rethink their inner vision of the future. If they change that vision, then they will change the way they currently make decisions. This is an optimistic way of viewing change: we can, with the help of others and ourselves, rethink our inner vision of what the future holds and in turn change how we make new decisions, decisions based on new, revised futures.<\/p>\n

    One of the tools Frey likes to work with he calls “backcasting”.\u00a0Backcasting is one way to revise the inner vision with a new, emergent future.\u00a0Backcasting is unlike forecasting–predicting the future from sensing what is happening now. Backcasting is a technique that starts in the future and works backwards.<\/p>\n

    Here is a backcasting scenario specifically designed by Frey. He wants us to think of backcasting as a form of reverse engineering where we envision a potential future then identifying tech, policies and plans that can build a path from future to present.\u00a0With backcasting, a successful outcome is imagined and the question is asked, \u201cWhat do we need to do today to reach that vision of the future?\u201d<\/p>\n

    Here is Frey’s first scenario:<\/p>\n

    \n

    Scenario #1<\/em><\/h2>\n

    Newspaper headline reads:<\/em>\u00a0\u201cNew gravity-controlling technology demonstrated, reduces gravity by as much as 50%\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

    Newton\u2019s laws of gravity provide us with a description of how the forces of gravity affect us, but not what gravity is. Even today, gravity remains a mysterious force, whose nature and attributes have confounded researchers for centuries.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Anti-gravity has been an ongoing theme among science fiction writers ever since H.G. Wells talked about the gravity blocking substance \u201cCavorite\u201d in his book The First Men in the Moon, but even as researchers have made some inroads, the field of gravity remains poorly understood.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Questions:<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    If someone actually invents a gravity-reducing technology<\/em>, what is the best way to demonstrate it?<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    What are some of the ways a gravity reducing technology will be used in business and industry? Also, what are the potential abuses?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    How long before we see headlines like this?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Here is how I might turn this into a template<\/p>\n

    Scenario #1<\/p>\n